Mohamed El-Erian

Transcript from Bloomberg TV

On the U.S. going into a double-dip recession:

“I am worried. We’ve had two bits of unfavorable news in the last 24 hours. One you reported this morning, which is that we have less economic momentum than we thought we had – 2% growth as opposed to 2.5%.  The second is that yesterday we had no policy momentum. We’re worried about the concept of stall speed, that 2% growth may not be enough for an economy that still has to de-lever. We put the chance of a recession at one-third to one half, which is really high given initial conditions.”

On policy makers in Washington, D.C.:

“[Policy makers] are totally off the track. It’s not a failure to agree on medium-term fiscal reforms, it’s also a failure to give air cover for other things that need to be done — in housing, in the labor markets, in credit. We have no policy momentum. Let me tell you what I find most terrifying: we’re having this discussion about a risk of recession at a time when unemployment is already too high, at a time when a quarter of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, at a time when the fiscal deficit is 9%, a time when interest rates are at zero.”

On what factors could be driving a double-dip recession:

“This is a fragile economy. It doesn’t mean we don’t have strength, we certainly do – the corporate sectors are as strong as we have ever seen it in terms of balance sheets. We have incredible entrepreneurial spirit. But we’re facing all these structural headwinds, and the big concern is the possibility of us being tipped over by Europe. Things in Europe, as you mentioned a few minutes ago, are getting worse, not better.”

On solutions in the U.S.:

“Unlike Europe, the U.S. doesn’t face an engineering problem – it faces a political problem. The solution is not an engineering nightmare. You can actually put it on paper and get it done. But it’s been a political nightmare. What we’d like to see is the political class to come together and agree on the steps that need to be taken.”

“As you have heard us say over and over again, Bill Gross has been saying it, I’ve been saying it, other PIMCO colleagues have been saying it — it’s structural in nature. We need medium term structural reforms to increase the growth potential and job creation potential of this economy. We can do it. This is different from Europe. Europe has both a political problem and an engineering problem. Our problems are small relative to Europe, but if we wait they will become larger.”

On the S&P’s statement that US rating is unaffected by the supercommittee:

“That is what S&P is telling us. We have to remember that S&P still has us on negative outlook which means unless things improve over the next three years, there could well be another downgrade. The ratings agencies in general are in a very tough position. We talked about at PIMCO’s investment committee yesterday. They’ve been beaten up a lot, both for what they have done and for mistakes that disrupted the markets for a while. It is hard to be a ratings agency today. You have to read these comments in that context. They are under fire.”

On Joseph Stiglitz’s comments that austerity measures make the crisis worse:

“I think [Stiglitz] is right, in the sense that the muddled middle, where Europe has been, is no longer sustainable. The crisis that started in the outer periphery, Greece, not only has shifted to the inner periphery and the outer core, Spain and Italy, but it has also impacted France which is the inner core.”

“Europe needs to make a choice if it wants to save the euro, and it should save the euro. There’s only two choices: one is a full fiscal union, a political decision with a very large bill. The other [choice] is a smaller, less-than-perfect euro zone, which has political implications but has a smaller bill. That is a political decision that Germany must take. The quicker it takes it, the more likely it will be able to save the euro.”

On the options that could save Europe:

“There are no easy options. That’s why the process is paralyzed. Wherever the policy makers look, they see tremendous costs and tremendous disruptions. The tendency has been to do too little, too late. There is no costless way forward at this point, and that is a problem that all of us have to internalize and understand, that there are no easy solutions.”

On Europe being the single biggest threat to the U.S. economy:

“Left to our own, we would muddle along with the risk of stall speed, but one thing we cannot cope with is the major shock from one of the largest economic areas of the world, Europe. Already we’re seeing investors stepped back from markets because of the anxiety. The more that happens, the more dysfunctional these markets become.”

On whether the Fed should implement QE3:

“I smiled when one of your guests said earlier that the Fed has been the only adult in Washington. That is true. It has been the only institution willing to take steps. As you pointed out, because the Fed has taken these steps, it has taken pressure off of the rest of Washington to do its part…Other agencies haven’t stepped up to the plate. It is time for other agencies to step up. The effectiveness of the Fed is declining, unfortunately, day in and day out.”

On what the Fed should do:

“Chairman Bernanke has made it clear and he’s repeating it three times, saying that when they look at these unconventional policies, they recognize the benefits but there are costs and risks. What we call collateral damage, unintended consequences.”

“[Bernanke] recognizes that that equation, that balance, is shifting from potential benefits to costs and risks. Looking forward, if they were to do QE3, they may get some benefits, but I suspect there would also be quite a bit of collateral damage and distortions put into the system that would take us years to overcome.”

“[Collateral damage would be] pressure on the currency. What you will see is pressure on the functioning of markets, you will see people stepping back, because more and more non-commercial forces will be determining market outcomes. We will also see questions about the credibility of the Fed and the political autonomy of the Fed.”

Mohamed A. El-Erian re-joined PIMCO at the end of 2007 after serving for two years as president and CEO of Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages Harvard’s endowment and related accounts. El-Erian served as a member of the faculty of Harvard Business School. He is said to have left Harvard as a result of disagreements with Larry Summers regarding Harvard’s investment strategy under Summers’ leadership.

Courtesy Tyler Durden and zerohedge.com

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At the sixth al-Jazeera forum in Doha in mid-March, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu gave a remarkable speech. He argued that the great 2011 Arab revolt was “necessary in order to restore the natural flow of history”. According to him, “abnormalities” had to be corrected; the carving-up strategy of colonialism (which, for instance, severed historical links between Damascus and Baghdad); and the Cold War (which, for instance, made enemies out of Turkey and Syria). The time had come, he said, when an ordinary Arab can change history.

Turkish FM Davutoglu (Image courtesy of Turkish Daily News)

Davutoglu also stressed that the Middle Eastern masses – “who want respect and dignity” – must be heard. He emphasized the need of transparency, accountability, human rights, the rule of law, and that “the territorial integrity of our countries and the region must be protected” – referring specifically to Libya and Yemen.

Then there was the Leaders of Change summit in Istanbul, also in mid-March. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan described Turkey as “a democratic social state based on social justice”. He also did not mince words when criticizing the West for not really supporting the great 2011 Arab revolt – or at least procrastinating; and he warned about the temptation of invading Libya as the US invaded Iraq. If there were any regime change in Libya, it should come from within, not via foreign intervention.

Erdogan also had time to destroy the failed concepts of end of history, clash of civilizations and the war on terror, while Davutoglu chastised the West for believing that “Arab societies didn’t deserve democracy, and needed authoritarian regimes to preserve the status quo and prevent Islamic radicalism”. Their conclusion: what’s going on in the Middle East today holds out the promise of showing the way towards a “global, political, economic and cultural new order”.

Now that’s the kind of talk when you want to position yourself as a regional leader and the ultimate bridge between East and West. Erdogan already held the moral high ground among the Arab world’s masses; he had explicitly called, from the beginning, for president Hosni Mubarak to step down in Egypt. Soon everyone from Casablanca to Muscat was talking about the Turkish model as the blueprint for the new Arab world. But then came Libya.

Turkey had billions of dollars invested in Libya, not to mention over 20,000 workers (evacuated in a matter of days). Ankara also clearly saw how the West was making a major power play for a possible new Libya. From inside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey forcefully condemned United Nations resolution 1973 while being at the forefront of sending humanitarian help. And all this while Turkish business already prepared their return to Libya.

These moves spell out a very skillful diplomatic game – to say the least. The question, thus, is inevitable; what is Turkey really up to?

Full power ahead

Before 2050, Turkey will be the third European power and the ninth world power – with more people than Germany, a first-class army, and a capability to display plenty of soft power via its good universities, a strong and diverse economy, technical know-how and the ruling party’s ability to “sell” its brand of democratic Islam.
Soon Turkey may become a full-time member of the hot BRICS group of emerging powers (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Last year, at a summit in Brasilia, the coming of “BRICTS” was seriously discussed.

No wonder eyebrows have been seriously raised. Western misconception, fueled by centuries of historical baggage, fears Erdogan of the Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) party as a neo-Ottoman sultan – and aspiring caliph – leading an informal empire ranging from the Eastern Mediterranean to Western China, from the Balkans to the Middle East (and he might even – God forbid – go for the reconquista of Jerusalem …)

Even before the great 2011 Arab revolt, the US State Department’s eyebrows had been particularly affected. One of the WikiLeaks cablegate’s most explosive revelations was the labeling of Erdogan as unreliable and even “anti-American” – as he is a practicing Muslim cultivating serious and political ties with Iran, not to mention being too independent from Washington in all regional matters, from Iraq to Central Asia.

President Barack Obama was forced to place a courtesy call to Erdogan last December. In other times, that call would subtly imply that any Turkish president who really supports the US should not fear a military coup. But these are multi-polar times … If only the State Department had bothered to understand the sophisticated Turkish take on a region the Sublime Porte (the palace entrance to the chief minister of the Ottoman Empire) dominated for half a millennium.

Go East, young Turk

The point was never that America is losing Turkey – or that Erdogan is a neo-Ottoman caliph (whatever that means …) The point is to understand what Turkey’s strategic depth is all about. It’s all in a book: Stratejik Derinlik: Turkiye’nin Uluslararasi Konumu (Strategic Depth: Turkey’s International Position), published in Istanbul in 2001 by Ahmet Davutoglu, then a professor of international relations at the University of Marmara, now Turkey’s foreign minister.

Davutoglu hails from Konya, in the south central steppes of Anatolia, where the great 13th century Sufi poet Rumi is buried (Rumi, by the way, was an Afghan, born in Balkh, although “Rumi” means literally “Anatolian”). Konya also happens to be the heart of the AKP party. But much more than expressing the worldview of a new political/religious elite from Anatolia and cities in the Black Sea defying the traditional, secular elites of Istanbul and Ankara, the book by the “neo-Ottoman Kissinger” is an organic expose of current Ankara geopolitics.

Davutoglu places Turkey at the center of three concentric circles. 1) Balkans, Black Sea basin, Caucasus. 2) Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. 3) Persian Gulf, Africa and Central Asia. Thus he places Turkey as the privileged gateway for accessing the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.

In the former bipolar world, Ankara was a passive actor – a mere weaponized arm of the US/NATO. Now Turkey is a key player in the Middle East; as Davutoglu puts it, “this is our home”. As influence areas go, Turkey may claim no less than eight: Balkans, Black Sea, Caucasus, Caspian, Turkic Central Asia, Persian Gulf, Middle East and Mediterranean.

Many may not know – although the Pentagon does – that Muslims control no less than eight strategic bottlenecks for global naval traffic: Dardanelles, Bosphorus, Suez, Bab-el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Sonda and Lombok, plus the condominium in Gibraltar.

To put this all in perspective Davutoglu even comes up with a formula: neo-Ottomanism + pan-Turkism + Islam = Great Turkey.

Neo-Ottomanism links to Arab lands but also the Balkans; pan-Turkism links to Central Asia; and Islam links to the whole dar-al-Islam, the lands of Islam, from Morocco to Indonesia. This is what Russian strategists would call the “near abroad”. So as much as Germany is the central and autonomous power in Europe, Davutoglu stresses that Turkey performs the same role further east. It’s all based on cultural and economic vectors – soft power, not weapons.

There are doubts about strategic depth. But the key point is that, in economic terms, Turkey would love nothing better than to become the new China. For this to happen, it’s essential to configure Anatolia as the ultimate Pipelineistan strategic crossroads for the export of Russian, Caspian-Central Asian, Iraqi and Iranian oil and gas to Europe.

That’s exactly where Turkey meets its top trade partner, Germany. But it may be a long and winding road ahead. A Transatlantic Trends 2010 poll revealed that only 38% of Turks and 23% of Europeans believe Turkey will ever be accepted into the European Union (EU). This does not mean that Turkey has given up on Europe; it’s now applying a different strategy.

Crucially, Davutoglu ranks the partnership between Turkey and Iran as equivalent to France and Germany. It’s under this marker that should be analyzed the link between Ankara and Brasilia at the UN Security Council last year against Washington, London and Paris over the ultra-strategic Iranian nuclear dossier.

Davutoglu’s circle in Ankara is very much aware that the Orientalist-named Middle East has been for over half a millennium the privileged arena of an Ottoman-Safavid rivalry.

Syria – close to Iran – is a critical case. Ankara has been advising Damascus to reform – and fast. In the words of Turkish President Abdullah Gul, “There can be no closed regime on the Mediterranean coast. [President Bashar] Assad is aware of this, too … We are sharing our experiences with him and we do not want chaos in Syria.”

At the same time, Ankara knows very well the House of Saud is freaking out with the increasingly closer relationship between Ankara and Tehran. Yet it helps that Gul lived in Jeddah for many years and knows how the Saudis think. Plus the fact that the Ottomans knew everything one needed to know about the power of sectarianism in the Middle East. A firm realpolitik signal is that Ankara did not oppose the Saudi invasion of Bahrain (well, just a little).

An explosive neighborhood

Now momentarily buried by all the turbulence related to the great 2011 Arab revolt, a crucial regional fact is that Ankara now sees Tehran as the golden door to Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. This means certified extra turbulence ahead for Washington, Jerusalem and US Arab client states, as Turkey has become a forceful, inescapable actor in both the Iranian and the Palestinian question (no wonder after the Mavi Marmara episode Erdogan became informally known as “the King of Gaza”).

A sound Davutoglu maxim though is “zero problems with the neighbors”. And what a dodgy neighborhood that is. In Turkey, there are more Azeris than in Azerbaijan; more Armenians than in Armenia; more Albanians than in Albania and Kosovo; more Bosnians than in Bosnia; and more Kurds than in Iraqi Kurdistan. These are all potential powder kegs.

For example, Ankara is very active economically in Iraqi Kurdistan – but at the same time there are ample suspicions that the US Central Intelligence Agency and the Israeli Mossad may be behind renewed Kurdish attacks against Turkish forces in southeast Anatolia.

Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, is awash with Turkish clothes and beer (while in Shi’ite Basra, in southern Iraq made in Iran Saipa and Peugeot cars rule and Iranian pilgrims make the economy of Karbala and Najaf turn). Turkey is a top investor in hotels, real estate, industry and energy in Iraqi Kurdistan; 55% of total foreign investment, including Turkish oil company TPAO, which is developing two Iraqi gas fields. Turkey and Iran fiercely compete for greater influence in Baghdad.

The Russians are coming

As I noted in previous Pipelineistan stories, Turkey also has to play a finely balanced game involving its Caucasian neighbors – while it simply cannot afford to antagonize Russia.

In a nutshell, former Cold War enemies Turkey and Russia are trying, together, to find a way to manage the Caucasus and Central Asia – but with their sights also set on the Middle East and the Balkans. This complex evolution implies limiting US expansion and controlling radical Islam, everything subordinated to Pipelineistan. For Washington it’s hard to stomach that Russia and Turkey are now strategic partners.

Moscow needs Turkey to pump out energy to Europe and the Middle East while also thwarting the Western obsession of building Pipelineistan bypassing Russia. After all, Russia wants to monopolize European energy markets, Eurasian producers and supply routes. No wonder this is bound to cause a lot of tremendous problems for the Turkey-Russia strategic partnership.
Ankara knows that Moscow knows it carries a lot of leverage with Europe as a key natural gas transit country. Brussels desperately wants the troubled Nabucco pipeline – which should link Erzurum to Vienna. Moscow for its part wants the South Stream pipeline via Bulgaria. A possible solution would be Nabucco carrying Turkmen gas that would arrive in Turkey via Russia; but, the Europeans and Americans object, that is no diversification at all.

Russia is already Turkey’s number one trade partner; 70% of its exports are in energy, 20.5% in metals and 3% in chemical products. Russia represents 25% of the foreign market for Turkish construction companies. Turkey is a tourist Mecca for Russians (no visa is necessary). A $20 billion made in Russia nuclear power station – already ratified by the Turkish parliament – will be built in Turkey, to be completed by 2019.

All this is now possible because pan-Turkism – the push to agglomerate the Turkic world from the Adriatic to the Wall of China, all the rage during the 1990s – is over. It was after the 2008 Russo-Georgian-Ossetian war that everything crucially changed. Moscow won. Georgia kissed goodbye to NATO. And Ankara got the message.

The new configuration does make a lot of sense. In energy terms, Turkey depends on Russia for almost 80% (Gazprom supplies 63% of its gas and 29% of its oil). In 1997, they signed a deal for Blue Stream – Pipelineistan crossing the Black Sea and arriving in Samsun in Turkey; the Western arm arrives from Bulgaria. Now there’s even room for a Blue Stream-2, a gas pipeline linking Lebanon, Syria, Cyprus and maybe Israel.

Relax and float downstream

But the really juicy Turkey-Russia game is South Stream. From the Russian port of Beregovaja, South Stream crosses Turkish territorial waters in the Black Sea to the Bulgarian terminal of Varna, and beyond to Italy and Austria.

Well, it was a juicy game until Moscow started toying with the idea of replacing South Stream with a trans-Black Sea liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. What this proves is how volatile is the Turkey-Russia energy relationship.

On a (shaky) parallel track, Ankara is also on board the alternative – the ever-elusive Nabucco. Nabucco is crucial not only because of its huge projected capacity, but because it involves extremely complex negotiations to sign deals with Turkmenistan, Iran or Iraq that could potentially turn everything upside down in Pipelineistan.

So now it’s no secret that Ankara dreams of regional cooperation and improving relations with Europe under the matrix of energy. Iran for its part wants to export more gas via Turkey – not only out of its own, giant South Pars field but bringing Turkmen gas as well.

Call it a permanent fixture of the New Great Game in Eurasia: Ankara playing alongside Tehran to provide Europe with Iranian and Turkmen gas. Both have serious geopolitical affinities. Both are fighting Kurdish separatism. Erdogan and Ahmadinejad know only too well that the only alternative to the US-supported Caucasian corridor to get natural gas to Europe is Iran – which is linked not only to the Turkmen side of the Caspian but also to the huge Turkmen Daulatabad fields (near Mashhad in Iran) and their connection to Erzurum.

What will it take for Washington to face the fact that Tehran holds an unparalleled geopolitical role for Ankara? As a Caspian nation, Iran facilitates the transport of Turkmen gas to the European networks without having to solve the ultra-complex juridical status of the Caspian itself (is it a sea? Or is it a lake?) Bottom line: if Turkey does not court Iran it will lose the bandwagon of Turkmen gas flowing to Europe; and that would mean Europe being even more dependent on Russia.

By positioning Turkey as the ultimate energy bridge between East and West, Davutoglu acted like a Vegas high roller; if you’re not a source you’ve got to find a way to become a player. Turkey imports no less than 93% of its oil and 97% of its gas. 55% of the imported gas is used to generate – very expensive – electricity.

The energy offer is there: from Russia, the Caspian, and the Middle East. And the demand is also there: from the European Union (EU) and from world markets via the Mediterranean. No less than 72% of the world’s hydrocarbons are lying nearby. Is it any wonder that Ankara is having dreams over “strategic synergies”?

Where’s my energy drink?

The key political question, once again, is that Turkey’s new delicate positioning entails serious friction with traditional allies – the US, the EU and Israel – as it gets closer and closer to Russia, Iran and Syria, and as it asserts a leadership role (and is viewed as a model) across the fast-evolving Middle East.

Yet energy – not ideology – is the key. The Turkey-Brazil mediation last year over Iranian uranium enrichment; the good commercial relations with the Kurdistan regional government in Iraq; the good relationship with Azerbaijan involving agreements about the Shah Deniz gas field. All these developments are subordinated to an overarching theme: energy.

In this high-stakes game, some European governments are more skillful players than others. If you think former US president Bill Clinton was the king of triangulation, you haven’t seen Italian Prime Minister Silvio “Bunga Bunga” Berlusconi yet. The triangular Pipelineistan relationship between Italy, Turkey and Russia is now a classic. At the Group of 20 meeting in Seoul last year, Berlusconi, Erdogan and Medvedev retreated to a key trilateral meeting just to talk Pipelineistan.

A Gazprom board member told the Roman daily La Repubblica that in exchange for Gazprom’s expansion in Europe, Prime Minister Valdimir Putin opened to Berlusconi and the Italian ENI energy giant the exploitation of Caspian gas in Kazakhstan (ENI will particularly relish this now as it runs the risk of being shut down in the “new” Libya, with or without Muammar Gaddafi).

Turkey now wants to develop Pipelineistan not only along an east-west axis but a north-south as well; this means a complex web of relations with no less than nine countries – Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt. Even before the great 2011 Arab revolt, serious negotiations were ongoing regarding an Arab Pipelineistan that could link Cairo, Amman, Damascus, Beirut and Baghdad. This would do more to unify and develop the new Middle East than any “peace process”, “regime change” or, for that matter, peaceful uprising.

Yet a serious storm in the horizon may throw this Pipelineistan chapter on the rocks; it’s the US missile shield project, in fact a triad of missile shields to be deployed in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. The great 2011 Arab revolt may have pushed the issue to the background, but it has not disappeared.

Washington has blamed Iran as the rationale for installing a NATO-controlled missile shield in Europe. Healthy cynicism would instead point to an European shield actually aimed at Russia and an Asian shield aimed at China. But then there’s the possibility of a NATO missile shield installed in Turkey – which would be aimed against Iran, and in a lesser measure, Syria. No wonder this Pentagon/NATO gambit, discussed last year at the NATO summit in Brussels, immersed Ankara in serious political turmoil.

Years after Davutoglu’s book, a look at the official Turkish energy strategy, published a year ago by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, reveals that transport of energy and gas is the pillar of five strategic themes. The new Turkish foreign policy does seem to be based on very realistic assessments around the key theme of energy. Whichever way we look at it, it’s a complex maze of geopolitics and public and private investments. It may take much more than a missile shield to smash this strategy to pieces.

The fact is that Turkey’s polycentric roles – as an energy bridge between East and West, as a model for the new Arab world, as a key player in the New Great Game in Eurasia – are now more crucial than ever. Sultans of swing – indeed.

(Courtesy Asia Times Online)

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Published in The Independent Monitor December 2009 issue.

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The shocking truth is….

Credit repair can be done by yourself and does NOT need a high priced company to do it for you. Similarly, you can do your OWN SEO and don’t need a high priced company do it for you either.

 Does this mean that ALL companies are scamming you? Not necessarily.  No one is stopping you from changing your own oil in your car are they? You can purchase your own oil and filter, and with a little effort you can save quite a bit of money on your oil changes by doing it yourself. So why do most people opt to get it professionally changed and pay premium? The reasons vary, but across the board it’s usually lack of experience or knowledge, as well as the convenience and peace of mind of having a trusted professional is worth the money.

 What to look for in a Credit Repair or SEO company:

Look at their claims. If a company is claiming to boost your credit 100points in 30 days “guaranteed” or get your website ranked on Google’s 1^st page, you need to exercise some practical reasoning.

The law allows us to dispute inaccurate items on our credit reports – but if you’re legitimately late on your payments, how can a company “guarantee” to clean that item off your report?

 As for being ranked on Google’s first page; your website is just one of billions of websites on the Internet! So how can a SEO company “guarantee” to get you on the first page of search results when you’re competing against millions of competitors, each with their own SEO company trying to get them on the first page too?

Search engines are getting smarter each day, and they change the way they score your website against your competitors quite often. The main quality a search engine like Google looks for in ranking your site against your competitors is the amount of related text on your website versus theirs. For example, if you have a small website, with only 4-5 pages of content on the topic of Fishing, and your competitor has 100+ pages of content on Fishing, clearly your competitor will rank higher than you! It’s just logic!

 One credit restoration firm I’ve grown to respect and trust is Ideal Credit Inc. They have many years of experience in this field, and what I love about them is they will review your report for free to see if they can even help! Moreover, they offer a lot of education to each client so that after working with Ideal Credit Inc. you are well educated on the mysterious world of credit repair and building Ideal credit.

I highly recommend anyone interested in learning more about their services and credit repair in general go and visit their website, www.IdealCreditInc.com

 WAIT- THIS ARTICLE IS CONTINUED ON OUR WEBSITE!

Visit www.AmeriPrideMarketing.com and click on “Tutorials” to learn how you can do your own credit repair and SEO!

Published in The Independent Monitor November 2009 issue.

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Two industries have blossomed over the past few years and it seems that everywhere you look is an ad for them. What’s scary is the overwhelming UNQUALIFIED companies offering these services and the SEVERE consequences to the customer when working with them. I’ll show you how to protect yourself and spot the real from the fake BEFORE you spend your hard earned money hiring them.

Where does your business rank? Contact AmeriPride Marketing for a free consultation (714) 333-1471.

The first scam we’ll cover is SEO, Search Engine Optimization, Search Engine Marketing (SEM)… it’s the service of the times – and you can’t live online without it! Problem is that one search online will yield THOUSANDS of so-called “SEO companies” or experts in SEO with prices ranging from $50/mo to $15,000/mo! Yet ALL claim to get you on the first page of popular search engines.

Secondly, Credit Repair, Credit Cleanup, Credit Restoration, Credit Counseling, etc…  claiming to boost your credit score 100 points in one month, and remove BK’s, Lates, and Collections charging upwards of 500 per entry!

The shocking truth is….

Credit repair can be done by yourself and does NOT need a high priced company to do it for you. Similarly, you can do your OWN SEO and don’t need a high priced company do it for you either.

Does this mean that ALL companies are scamming you? Not necessarily.  No one is stopping you from changing your own oil in your car are they? You can purchase your own oil and filter, and with a little effort you can save quite a bit of money on your oil changes by doing it yourself. So why do most people opt to get it professionally changed and pay premium? The reasons vary, but across the board it’s usually lack of experience or knowledge, as well as the convenience and peace of mind of having a trusted professional is worth the money.

What to look for in a Credit Repair or SEO company:

Look at their claims. If a company is claiming to boost your credit 100points in 30 days “guaranteed” or get your website ranked on Google’s 1^st page, you need to exercise some practical reasoning.

The law allows us to dispute inaccurate items on our credit reports – but if you’re legitimately late on your payments, how can a company “guarantee” to clean that item off your report?

As for being ranked on Google’s first page; your website is just one of billions of websites on the Internet! So how can a SEO company “guarantee” to get you on the first page of search results when you’re competing against millions of competitors, each with their own SEO company trying to get them on the first page too?

Search engines are getting smarter each day, and they change the way they score your website against your competitors quite often. The main quality a search engine like Google looks for in ranking your site against your competitors is the amount of related text on your website versus theirs. For example, if you have a small website, with only 4-5 pages of content on the topic of Fishing, and your competitor has 100+ pages of content on Fishing, clearly your competitor will rank higher than you! It’s just logic!

One credit restoration firm I’ve grown to respect and trust is Ideal Credit Inc. They have many years of experience in this field, and what I love about them is they will review your report for free to see if they can even help! Moreover, they offer a lot of education to each client so that after working with Ideal Credit Inc. you are well educated on the mysterious world of credit repair and building Ideal credit.

I highly recommend anyone interested in learning more about their services and credit repair in general go and visit their website, www.IdealCreditInc.com

WAIT- THIS ARTICLE IS CONTINUED ON OUR WEBSITE!

Visit www.AmeriPrideMarketing.com and click on “Tutorials” to learn how you can do your own credit repair and SEO!

 Published in The Independent Monitor November 2009 issue.

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Staff Writer

These days more than ever, we as business owners need to watch what we spend.

We keep an eye out for special deals, negotiate with sales people, and stretch supplies and resources to the max – But at what point does being financially savvy mean you’re just being cheap – and more importantly, what is the true cost of being cheap to your business?

Moderation is needed in every facet of our lives; if you remember a previous article I wrote on “Time Management”, moderation is vital to balance in both personal life and business. So when speaking of trying to save money, it is very tempting and easy to cut corners, or just jump at the lower price tag without considering the very expensive and potentially dangerous consequences.

One simple example is going cheap on construction. Many people might be scared of the idea of “Building Green” versus traditional construction. For instance, imagine spending a little extra money during construction and installing skylights in your ceilings – by doing this you can effectively keep all your lights OFF during the daylight hours! With average monthly electricity bills being $500+. You would recoup your initial costs to install the skylights in just a few months, while enjoying clean natural light during the day!  Another example is investing in a heat-resistant tint or even double-pane windows. By reducing the amount of heat coming in, you can significantly lower the time your AC is on and obviously save hundreds per year as well.

These examples may or may not be obvious, but one expense a surprising number of businesses see as an optional expense rather than a mandatory one, and one very important at that, is MARKETING!

I’ve found that when business is good, companies throw money into marketing to get more business, however, when business is down, they become very scared to invest in marketing. The reasons vary, but the main excuse I hear is fear. Fear of spending money on marketing that doesn’t work – “Business is already down, I’m not going to put money into marketing when I don’t know any guaranteed results”

When simply comparing the alternative- not marketing, logically it just doesn’t make any sense. If business is slow or dead, and you are just sitting waiting for things to change, you are in a much worse position than supposedly “gambling” your money on a marketing effort that has no “guaranteed” results.

Marketing takes many forms, and I’ll list a few for reference: Fliers, Printing, Websites, SEO/SEM (Search Engine Optimization or Marketing), Coupons, Mailers, Post Cards, Banners, Flags, Signs, … even a person holding a sign at the street corner! All are forms of marketing. Is any one more important than another? Well the proper question to ask is “which piece is most effective for my target market?”

 To read the rest of this article, please visit www.AmeriPrideMarketing.com and click on “Tutorials”.

 Sign up for a FREE CONSULTATION with me by clicking on the link at the top of our site too.

Published in The Independent Monitor October 2009 issue.

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“Go to school so you can get a good job” – this is what we’ve heard since childhood, but does it still apply these days? Is a Bachelor’s really just B.S.?

Well, think about this: Every year, hundreds of thousands of eager, motivated, newly educated college students are unleashed into the job market hoping and expecting to work. With today’s job market being so bad, where are all these grads going to find work?

Modern day grads find themselves in a difficult position. They’ve been raised in an “instant gratification” society, where whatever they could possibly imagine or desire is readily available within reach. Food, jobs, fun, travel, education – it’s all right at their fingertips. Furthermore, they’ve seen some of the most amazing economic times during the past decade. With the “fast-money” and “young-money” boom that came with the real estate boom. For the first time, these young adults have seen money flow in ways they’ve only dreamt about previously.

On the other hand, these students have also lived and witnessed one of the greatest recessions in modern history. Parents and relatives losing their jobs, friends and peers not able to find work, and to top it all off, they have student loans coming due in six months.

So the question we pose is this? Again, is a Bachelor’s degree enough? Is the Bachelor’s the new high school diploma? Does one need a Master’s or PhD to even get recognized these days and in the future?

The answer is surprising.

A person with a Masters or PHD will surprisingly be deemed “overqualified” for many positions. Moreover, in today’s economic times, many employers are not willing to hire these graduates because they are just too expensive. As a newly graduated student, one expects to find high paying work because again, this is what they’ve been told all their life – “The higher the education, the higher the pay.” But the jobs that require a Master’s or PhD are hard to get as they do pay high, and again these days, employers are finding it hard enough to keep their doors open as it is – without hiring on more expensive employees. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go for your Master’s or PhD, it simply means you should know what to expect afterwards.

So what is the solution? Stop going to school?

No, school is amazing. Higher learning is amazing. Achieving your goals is amazing. But you cannot depend on that title or degree alone to find work.

Get creative. Just as throughout evolution, the strongest survive. In today’s market, it’s the savviest that will survive. Here are some tips on what you can do to find some work or just make some money:

-It’s who you know. Tap into your contacts! You’ve heard, “it’s not what you know, it’s who you know.” An employer is much more willing to hire someone personally referred rather than a name on a resume or application.

-Be persistent. If it took three to four interviews in the “good days” to find a job, just keep in mind, it could take eight to 12 interviews to find one these days. As long as you are aware of the odds, it will keep you from becoming depressed if it’s taking longer than you’d like to land a job.

-Get creative. Many of you have talents and passions that you can turn into cash flow now. Do you cook well? Offer your services as a personal chief. Always got A’s on your term papers? Become a freelance editor. Love cars? Start a mobile detailing business for companies with lots of cars.

-Intern. Yes… work for free. This might sound crazy but listen. Imagine the look on the employer’s face when you tell them you are willing to work for free to prove your worth to them. Set up an agreement that you’ll work for a period of time without pay and then revisit the idea of full time paid employment after that.

Again, it’s not the book-smart who will make it, it’s the street-smart. I personally wish you all the best of luck in your endeavors. For more tips on making money, visit FreeMoneyLessons.com. I highly endorse this website and love their content and out-of-the-box ideas.

Published in The Independent Monitor September 2009 issue.

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Courtesy of DivineCaroline

It used to be that spotting a “good” counterfeit bill was impossible for ordinary people. If it was good enough to pass the “look and feel” test, then it was going to take an ultra-violet light or a magnetic ink detector. But for the past ten years, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing has been making bills that are easy to check.

The amount of counterfeit money in the US is low enough that most people feel safe taking money with barely a minimal check for counterfeits. Does it look and feel like money? Then it probably is. But have you ever gotten a bill where something-either the bank note or the person giving it to you-seemed a little off? Ever wished you could quickly check to see if it was good? Well, here’s how.

Step 1) Look and Feel

This is as far as most people go, and it’s good enough most of the time. US bank notes are printed on special paper that’s 75 percent cotton and 25 percent linen. The linen gives it an extra stiffness that’s distinctive. There are also red and blue fibers imbedded in the paper. Bank notes are printed with a process called “intaglio” that leaves ink on top of the paper, giving the money a distinctive texture. The printing is also very high quality, so the lines are sharp and clear, not broken, fuzzy, or blobby.

Step 2) Color-Shifting Ink

Bank notes bigger than the $5 bill use color-shifting ink to print the number showing the denomination in the lower-right-hand corner. Just look at the numbers head-on, and then from an angle. For genuine notes the color will shift (copper-to-green or green-to-black).

You can get this far pretty discreetly. The look and feel you’re checking automatically as soon as the bill is handed to you, and you can confirm the color-shifting ink in a quick glance. Going further will require that you hold the note up to the light, which is basically saying that you think you might have gotten counterfeit money. A lot of people hesitate to do that, but it’s the next step if you want to be sure.

Step 3) Watermark

All bills bigger than a $2 now have a watermark; hold the bill up to the light to see it. For the $10, $20, $50, and $100, the image matches the portrait. You can use the watermark to spot bills that have been bleached and reprinted with a higher denomination. The watermark is part of the paper and is visible from the rear of the note as well.

Step 4) Security Thread

All bills bigger than a $2 have a security thread running vertically through the bill. Like the watermark, you hold the bill up to the light to see it. The thread has text with the bill’s denomination and an image that is unique to that denomination. The different denominations have the threads in different places, again so you can spot bills that have been bleached and reprinted with a higher denomination. (The threads also glow different colors under ultraviolet light, but that’s not much help to ordinary folks.)
________________________________________
Genuine Bills

That’s it. If a bill:

• Looks and feels like a US bank note
• Has color-shifting ink
• Has a watermark that matches the portrait
• And has a security thread with text that matches the denomination

Then it’s almost certainly a genuine bill.

What about older bills?

There are still some old bills around, from before these security features were added (starting in 1996). Now that it’s been more than ten years, it’s about time to simply refuse to accept old bills. Bills that old, that are still in circulation-especially high-denomination bills-are much too likely to be counterfeit. If it is genuine, the holder can easily enough take it to the bank and get some new currency, so your refusing to take it is no burden on an innocent holder of old but genuine currency.

More info:

If you’re interested in this sort of thing (the way I am), here are some other pages worth checking out:

• The US Secret Service page on spotting counterfeit money: This page covers spotting counterfeits the old-fashioned way, without using the security features of modern bills.
• The How Stuff Works article How Counterfeiting Works: This page actually walks you through making your own counterfeit with a scanner and a color printer. It explains why it’s harder than it looks and how most counterfeiters are usually caught and sent to prison for a long time.
• An article from the St. Louis Federal Reserve-Currency Design in the United States and Abroad: Counterfeit Deterrence and Visual Accessibility: On how different countries have tried to optimize the trade-offs between fighting counterfeiting, making their money accessible to people with limited vision, and making the money easy for banks and other high-volume users of currency to handle.

Published in The Independent Monitor July 2009 issue.

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Love is an amazing feeling. It consumes you. It motivates you. It fills your life with purpose… On the other hand, it can also blind you.

Once upon a time, there was a very motivated man with life goals, dreams, and vision beyond his years.  Everything he did was to hopefully move towards reaching those goals. Along came a beautiful young woman that absolutely swept him off his feet. The two fell madly in love with one another and had goals of marriage and a beautiful life together. Before you know it, this young woman is now the only thing on the man’s mind. They talked all day and night. Everything they did revolved around each other, and their romantic relationship flourished and grew very rapidly.

One day, however, something happened… the young man received a disturbing phone call from an angry client who’s been feeling neglected by him. Our young man apologized and promised to correct the issue and pay more attention. Unfortunately, this client wasn’t the only angry client; pretty soon our young man began receiving letters and calls from several other clients unhappy with the lack of attention they have been receiving. He was even close to being sued and losing his largest account, when he had to finally take a step back and think… WHAT’S GOING ON!?

What was happening is he was “cheating” on his 1st love… His business. Any entrepreneur knows, you are practically married to your business. Though his intentions were well, our young businessman was paying all his attention to his new love and neglecting his business! Now, the only logical decision is to break up with the one or the other right?… WRONG.
The key is Moderation.  Life is all about moderation. Just because you paid for an all-you-can-eat buffet, doesn’t mean you should actually keep eating till you explode right?! Having a work/life balance is essential to the success of any person.

Sounds like common sense… but look at how many people’s lives get ruined by the one thing they are striving so hard to make work… their business. Divorces, suicides, depression, greed, anarchy… are a few examples of what happens when one doesn’t have moderation in their life.

So what can you do to help prevent your business from taking over your life? Here are a few tips that have helped me and some of my most successful clients stay sane:

1)    Keep a written to-do list of TODAY’s goals. Too many times I see people with to-do lists a mile long. That’s great for the long run, but it will make you feel unaccomplished on a daily basis as you feel you have not done anything. By keeping your to-do list to what needs to be done today, you will stay focused and motivated longer since you feel you are realistically on track.

2)    For every 2 hours of work, spend 10 minutes with your significant other. A quick phone call to your wife, husband, friend, child, or parent can keep that “human” element in your busy day and help you remember the WHY in why you do what you do.

3)    Physical activity is mandatory! I personally work out on a daily basis. Do what you can. Going to the gym, playing sports, or even just running outdoors with your kids on the grass will keep you healthy and sane.

4)    Go WIRELESS. Modern day technology is such that you can literally run almost every business from a remote location. If your business allows you the freedom, then take advantage of it and work from the beach one day… the park the next… from home another day. Keep things interesting and fresh. No one wants to see the same 4 walls for 10 hours a day, every day!

5)    Lastly, hire a personal assistant. You may be thinking “way too expensive” or ” I don’t have a need”… well I beg to differ.  Having an assistant can help you stay focused on the important factors of your business, while your assistant can handle smaller tasks that don’t require your “executive” opinion on.

There are many other tips I can offer, but you get the idea. Bottom line, moderation is key to having a successful personal and business life.

Until next time… wishing you all the best, all the time.

Visit WilliamKhury.com to learn more about my services and how we can help you grow to your peak potential.

Published in The Independent Monitor July 2009 issue.

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Arab TIme

By William Khury

Tick, tock, tick, tock… Time waits for no one. While the entire world runs on appointments, normal hours of operation and deadlines, it seems like Arabs are above the law with respect to time.

This may seem harsh, but wake up and smell the Ahwa! Arabs are so notorious for being late to appointments that we have our own time zone-”Arab Time.”

As always, I speak from personal experience and by no means want to sound like I’m not late every once in a while, but seriously friends, let’s clean up our act here.

Punctuality is very important to our reputations both personal and business. It shows we have respect for the people we’re meeting, as we know their time is valuable and they have willingly allowed us a bit of it in hopes of achieving a mutually beneficial outcome.

Furthermore, being punctual shows we have respect for ourselves. Last time I checked, everyone in this world only has 24 hours in a day. Even if you’re a workaholic, you still need eight hours of sleep per night to function the next day, so that leaves 16 hours you’re awake. Let’s take out two hours for food and breaks, another two hours for traffic to and from work and appointments and another two hours for miscellaneous things that might come up. What are you left with? About nine hours of actual “workable” time.

These “workable” hours in your day need to be spent wisely and productively.
Let’s say you’re a realtor. How would you feel if you spent an entire day with some prospects, only in the end to find out that they don’t have enough credit to finance a candy bar? Well, don’t be mad at the prospects, it’s your fault. You should’ve qualified them prior to spending so much time with them, because while you were out joyriding with them in hopes of closing a sale, your competition is out with pre-qualified prospects that can actually buy when they see what they like.

What if you’re one of those who’s always on time, but is stuck waiting for late people? I have some advice for you as well.

1. When setting appointments, make sure to space your appointments apart so that your previous appointment isn’t overflowing into your next, but at the same time, not leaving you with too long of a gap that you’re unproductive between meetings.

2. Confirm your appointment ahead of time. Call whoever you’re meeting with ahead of time so that you’re not surprised if they are late or don’t show up.

3. When making the original appointment, kindly but seriously make sure they know you are very busy, and although you would love to meet with them, insist that they let you know three hours ahead of the appointment if their schedule changes.  Also, let them know that you will call to confirm your appointment, and if you don’t reach them, you will assume the appointment is canceled.

4. Use technology. Every modern cell phone has a calendar feature, or at least a basic alarm- use it. Set a reminder, as well. Email providers such as Gmail, MSN, Yahoo, Outlook and others all have built-in appointment managers too. You can even send an event reminder to your prospects to allow them to auto-add it to their calendars.

Bottom line: Punctuality shows respect for others and yourself. We have limited hours in the day and we must use them wisely. If you want to sit and chit chat, that’s fine, just please make sure the other person is O.K. with it so you don’t impose on their time. Get business out of the way, and if there’s time left, have your fun.

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